Holt-Winters method
The Holt-Winters method is a statistical technique used for forecasting time series data that exhibit trends and seasonality. It extends the basic exponential smoothing method by incorporating three components: level, trend, and seasonal factors. This allows it to adapt to changes in data patterns over time, making it suitable for various applications, such as sales forecasting and inventory management.
The method is divided into two main variations: additive and multiplicative. The additive model is used when seasonal variations are roughly constant, while the multiplicative model is appropriate when seasonal variations change proportionally with the level of the series. Overall, the Holt-Winters method is a powerful tool for accurate forecasting in many fields.